State Budget Deficit Dynamics and the California Debacle
分析了美国各州在近期经济衰退中预算赤字的变化，重点以加州为例，探讨了各州调整税收和支出速度变慢的原因，包括法律、政治和制度环境变化，以及资本利得收入波动和预测困难。
This paper analyzes the recent experience with state budget deficits in the United States, with an in-depth analysis of the California experience. Compared to prior recessions, states were slower to make adjustments in taxes and spending this time. The paper explores a variety of reasons for this difference including changes in the legal, political, and institutional environments, the unusual increase in capital gains revenue during the boom preceding the recession, and the inherent difficulties in forecasting revenues, particularly those derived from capital income. As the case study from California illustrates, states made long term commitments from temporary revenue sources and were required to make budgetary decisions in the face of very incomplete information about current and projected tax receipts.