Subjective versus Objective Yield Distributions as Measures of Production Risk
通过菲律宾雨养水稻区的数据，比较了农民主观估计的产量分布与客观估计的产量分布，发现农民低估了产量对氮肥反应的年度波动，并讨论了客观分布对风险规避决策分析的意义。
Abstract Subjective probabilities of farmers with nonlinear utility are estimated from distributions elicited by applying a linear scoring rule with monetary payoffs. Estimated subjective distributions are compared to objective estimates of yield distributions in a risky rainfed rice‐growing area in the Philippines. The results indicate that farmers are knowledgeable about mean nitrogen response, but seriously underestimate year‐to‐year variability in yield response to nitrogen. The implication is that accurately estimated objective distributions can be used to estimate upper limits of the effects of risk aversion on allocative decisions.