An econometric analysis of the forward premium in the international corn market
用计量模型分析1973-1983年国际玉米远期升水，发现工业产出、利率和汇率等宏观经济变量能解释其大部分波动，对研究农产品期货定价和国际贸易的学者有参考价值。
This study investigates the limkage between world macroeconomic factors and prices of an internationally traded commodity by explicitly accounting for the role of futures markets in stockholding behaviour. Using a portfolio model, the empirical analysis is carried out with quarterly data of a storable, international traded commodity—corn—for the 19731–19831 IV period. The empirical findings show that a substantial variation in the corn forward premium can be explained by current and expected future values of macroesconomic variables such as industrial production, interest rates, and exchange rates.