The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change
回顾了全球人口转变的历程，从1800年欧洲死亡率下降开始，分析人口规模增长、增速变化、年龄结构老化及其对养老金体系的压力，适合关注人口趋势与经济影响的研究者。
The global demographic transition began around 1800 in Europe with declining mortality followed by declining fertility, trends which spread around the world and continue in this century. At the aggregate level, population size greatly increased, growth accelerated and declined with many countries now shrinking, and age distributions inevitably moved from young to old. Population aging has not yet run its course, Its effects exacerbated by declining retirement ages, straining pensions systems and prompting their reform. These aggregate demographic trends reflect profound changes in risks and behavior for individuals and families, and in the shape of the economic life cycle.