On Population Growth and Technological Change: Selectivity Bias in Historical Analysis
考察人口增长与技术变革的关系，通过历史数据检验马尔萨斯模型、内生技术变革模型及体制转换模型，指出历史分析中可能存在选择性偏差，即使马尔萨斯情景概率较低也不应忽视。
This paper investigates the relationship between population growth and technological change. After an historical overview of the evolution of world population, alternative models of population growth are examined. They include a Malthusian model, a model of endogenous technological change, and a model of population growth that allows for switching regimes between Malthusian resource limitation and endogenous technological change. The regime‐switching model stresses the potential for a biased interpretation of historical data. While there is strong empirical evidence supporting endogenous technical change, it is argued that the Malthusian scenario should not be overlooked even if the odds of facing it are low.