Formation of Price and Cost Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries: A Multi-Sectoral Analysis
利用1972-1989年英国九个制造业部门的调查数据，检验企业对价格和成本通胀预期的理性程度，发现考虑转换误差后，理性假设在多数部门未被拒绝，且汇总数据可能夸大非理性证据。
The process by which agents form expectations on price and cost inflation is investigated. Measures of expectations of these series, derived from qualitative survey responses in nine industrial sectors covering UK manufacturing between 1972-1989, are described, and the ‘rationality' of these expectations tested. Rationality is not rejected in many sectors, and the evidence against rationality much weakened in other sectors, if tests take into account a particular form of conversion error. The possible effect of aggregation bias in the tests is noted, as rationality is rejected with more confidence with aggregated data than when the sectoral data is considered individually.