The Time‐Varying Phillips Correlation
用复杂解调技术研究二战后美国、英国、欧元区等OECD国家实际活动与通胀在商业周期频率上的相关性变化，发现时变平均增益与通胀趋势正相关，支持新凯恩斯理论。
We use complex demodulation techniques to investigate changes in the correlation between real activity and inflation at the business‐cycle frequencies in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and 10 other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the post‐WWII era. Consistent with the analysis of Ball, Mankiw, and Romer (1988) we document a positive correlation between the time‐varying average gain of real activity onto inflation at the business‐cycle frequencies and inflation's Hodrick‐Prescott trend, which is compatible with New Keynesian theories emphasizing the link between trend inflation, the frequency of price adjustments, and the slope of the Phillips trade‐off.