Bayesian estimation of cost-effectiveness ratios from clinical trials
针对增量成本效果比率（ICER）估计中的困难，开发了一种贝叶斯方法，通过计算四个象限的后验概率和区间估计，并用三个临床试验数据演示。
Estimation of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is difficult for several reasons: treatments that decrease both cost and effectiveness and treatments that increase both cost and effectiveness can yield identical values of the ICER; the ICER is a discontinuous function of the mean difference in effectiveness; and the standard estimate of the ICER is a ratio. To address these difficulties, we have developed a Bayesian methodology that involves computing posterior probabilities for the four quadrants and separate interval estimates of ICER for the quadrants of interest. We compute these quantities by simulating draws from the posterior distribution of the cost and effectiveness parameters and tabulating the appropriate posterior probabilities and quantiles. We demonstrate the method by re-analysing three previously published clinical trials.