Sunspots and Cycles
在简单的世代交叠生产模型中，完整刻画了一类有限太阳黑子均衡（两个自然事件的平稳均衡），给出了存在性条件，并探讨其与严格周期均衡的关系及分岔现象，对理解理性预期中的太阳黑子均衡有核心意义。
Because sunspot equilibria seem to be of central importance for an understanding of rational expectations, we seek here to characterize completely a limited class of sunspot equilibria (stationary ones with two possible natural events) in the simplest overlapping generations model of production. We present a sufficient condition for the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria, examine how these are related to strictly periodic equilibria of the same order, and investigate how deterministic stationary equilibria bifurcate to stationary sunspot equilibria. A concluding section examines how our results survive in more general settings.