Irreversible Choice of Uncertain Technologies with Network Externalities
研究当技术随时间随机演变且存在网络外部性时，用户如何做出不可逆的技术选择。早期用户可能过早采用新技术，而技术赞助商可能选择过于保守的研发策略。允许代际补偿可能损害事前社会福利。
This paper explores the problem of sequential and irreversible technology choice in the presence of network externalities when the technologies stochastically evolve over time. Early potential users are shown to adopt an irreversible technology too early compared to the social optimum. The effect of increasing the uncertainty of the technologies on early potential user's decision is analyzed. We find that the sponsor of new emerging technology might choose too safe a research strategy. We also study the consequences of allowing side payments between generations of consumers, and demonstrate that ex post optimal policy can impair ex ante social welfare.