Optimal Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Evidence from the Bretton Woods Era
利用1955-1971年12个工业国家的数据，估计了钉住汇率制下产出和国际收支的意外波动分布，并以此刻画能最小化样本国产出方差的外汇市场干预程序，比较了管理浮动、篮子钉住和欧洲货币区等替代方案的效率。
Abstrac-t-This paper gathers evidence on the contribution of various techniques of exchange rate management to the output stability of twelve industrial countries. We estimate the distribution of unanticipated disturbances in outputs and the payments balances under pegged exchange rates from the 1955-1971 experience. We use this distribution to characterize the foreign exchange market intervention procedures which simultaneously minimize the output variances of the sample countries. The efficient procedures and the alternatives of managed floats, basket pegs, and the European currency area are compared according to structure and efficacy; and several implications for I.M.F. surveillance of exchange rates are drawn.