Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy: An Overview
综述了理性预期革命对宏观经济稳定分析的影响，总结了卢卡斯、萨金特等人的现有观点，并包含一些未发表过的讨论。
THE OBJECT OF THIS PAPER is to describe the impact on macroeconomic stabilization analysis of the rational expectations revolution of the past decade spearheaded by Lucas [32, 33, 34, 36], Sargent [53, 54], Sargent and Wallace [56], and Barro [2, 3, 5]. Thus the primary intention is to bring together and summarize existing ideas, rather than to create new ones. Some of the arguments in sections S8 have not, however, been discussed in print. And while the paper is intended to be something of a survey, it does not claim to present an evenhanded or balanced account of all issues. Like most writers, my inclination is to try to develop a persuasive version of my current views, even while recognizing that these views will doubtless undergo considerable modification as time passes. The section following these introductory remarks includes a brief discussion of the appropriateness, for macroeconomic analysis, of the hypothesis that expectations are formed rationally. Then section 3 lays out the basic model within which two