Is an Automaker's Road to Bankruptcy Paved with Customers' Beliefs?
研究了汽车市场中企业财务健康与消费者需求之间的反馈循环,通过模型分析通用汽车破产案例,发现财务困境对需求的影响显著降低了利润,但类似银行挤兑的多重均衡不太可能出现。
We explore the role the feedback loop between firms' financial health and consumers' demand for their products plays in the auto market. We construct a simple model of an automaker making pricing and debt service (continuation) decisions while recognizing that consumers are sensitive to whether it stays in business. We show that multiple equilibria can exist in such a model, and calibrate it to match stylized facts surrounding GM's recent bankruptcy. The results suggest that while the impact of financial distress on demand substantially reduced GM's profit, bank-run-like multiple equilibria do not appear likely in this market.