A test of the accuracy of probability assessment techniques in auditing*
62名执业审计师用四种主观概率评估技术估算应收账款余额，与模拟结果比较发现，PDF技术生成的先验分布最准确，适合贝叶斯分析。
Abstract. Sixty‐two practising auditors participated in an account balance estimation experiment. Having been provided with written and oral training material, they used four elicitation techniques (CDF, PDF, EPS, and HFS) to quantify their subjective beliefs regarding the accounts receivable balance of an audit case study. Their responses were compared to the results of a 600 sample simulation study, using the quadratic scoring rule. Their responses were also compared to the consensus distribution of all subjects using the Kolmogorov‐Smirnov measure. The results indicated that PDF is the elicitation technique generating the most accurate prior probability distribution for use in Bayesian analysis. The other three elicitation techniques were about equal in the degree to which they were less accurate than the PDF technique.