Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics under Rational Expectations: An Econometric Analysis
构建并估计了一个包含汇率、价格和经常账户动态的开放经济计量组合平衡模型，针对日本数据使用约束最大似然法估计，并比较了解决理性预期解非唯一性的不同方法。
An econometric portfolio balance model of an open economy, incorporating exchange rate, price, and current account dynamics, is derived and estimated.The usual stability conditions do not guarantee a unique rational expectations solution, and several proposals for resolving this situation are considered.Using constrained maximum likelihood methods, the model is estimated for Japan.The estimation results indicate that the model is quite successful in explaining the patterns found in the data.The model is estimated using several methods of resolving the question of non-uniqueness, and the results are compared.