The effect of the quota policy on the cattle stock and its composition
通过模拟欧洲共同体牛奶配额政策对牛群存栏量和性别构成的影响，发现配额政策导致母牛数量减少、公牛数量增加。
<sec> The effect of the milk quota policy on the cattle stock and its composition, in the EC, is evaluated by simulation within the context of a quarterly econometric model for the European beef market The farmers are assumed to be price-takers maximising returns from their cattle herd by deciding on its composition, by sex, and on its rate of growth through the number of total calves born. The price-taking assumption allows us to treat the milk quota policy as equivalent to general milk price reduction. Four scenarios are entertained for our simulations; in the first a 10&percnt; permanent fall in the (red) price of milk is stipulated; the second scenario assumes that die price of mUk falls initially by 10&percnt;, followed by five annual 1&percnt; reductions. The third scenario assumes that the fall in the price of mUk (10&percnt;) is only temporary lasting for two years, and finally the fourth simulation is based on the assumption of a 10&percnt; permanent reduction in the ‘real’ price ofmUk, accompanied by a 10&percnt; permanent increase of the ‘real’ price of cereals. In all cases, the cow herd declines whilst the stock of male animals expands. </sec>