Testing the Efficiency of the Canadian‐U.S. Exchange Market under the Assumption of no Risk Premium
比以往更全面地检验了加拿大-美国浮动汇率外汇市场的效率，发现1976年10月前的数据拒绝了市场有效且无风险溢价的联合假设，且即期汇率比远期汇率更能预测未来即期汇率。
ABSTRACT The efficiency of the Canadian‐U.S. exchange market for the current float is examined more extensively than previously. Semi‐strong‐form tests which admit the lagged spot rate as a predictor are considered in addition to the standard weak‐form test. These stronger tests reject the joint null hypothesis of an efficient exchange market and no risk premium for the period ending in October 1976, although not for the entire period. For almost every year the current spot rate provided a better forecast of the future spot rate than did the current forward rate.