Addressing uncertainty in economics and the economy
探讨社会与经济学家如何应对根本不确定性，认为不确定性随制度和行为演化，主流理论忽视不确定性会限制理论与政策的现实性，建议经济学家调整方法以更好应对不确定性。
This paper explores the way in which society in general and economists in particular deal with fundamental uncertainty. It is argued that uncertainty is interdependent with the evolution of institutions and behavior, including that designed to help society cope with uncertainty. While some mainstream theory does address uncertainty, it employs a much narrower concept than fundamental uncertainty. But generally, in spite of the evident increase in fundamental uncertainty during the crisis, most mainstream theory ignores it. While ignoring uncertainty can at times be a successful coping mechanism, it is argued that, as a blanket coping mechanism, ignoring uncertainty seriously limits the realism of theory and therefore also practice and policy. It is concluded that economists should embrace uncertainty by tailoring methodologies and theories to address it. This would provide a more fruitful basis for policy aimed at reducing uncertainty in the economy and also reducing our own uncertainty.