Small‐system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970–1994
使用协整向量自回归模型分析意大利1970-1994年间实际工资、人均产出、通胀和失业率的关系，发现1979年后经济结构变化导致均衡改变，并支持失业的滞后效应解释。
Abstract The relationships between real wages, output per capita, inflation and unemployment in Italy between 1970 and 1994 are modelled using a cointegrated vector autoregression. There is evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria and in the dynamic evolution of the variables, probably associated with the substantial changes in many sectors of the Italian economy after 1979. Alternative ways to model structural change in the Italian labour market are considered. In adopting a split‐sample approach the results favour an hysteresis interpretation of unemployment. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.