Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania
构建索洛模型研究艾滋病对坦桑尼亚经济增长和人均GDP的影响，预测2010年GDP可能下降15%-25%，人均收入下降0-10%。
A Solow-style model is developed to study the effects of the AIDS epidemic on the growth path of the economy and GDP per capita. The model uses conjectures about the demographic effects of AIDS in Tanzania to estimate the macroeconomic effects on the economy. The findings suggest that, without decisive policy action, AIDS may reduce Tanzanian DGP in the year 2010 by 15 to 25 percent in relation to a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario. Per capita income levels are expected to fall by 0 to 10 percent by 2010. Copyright 1993 by Oxford University Press.