Earnings Expectations, Revisions, and Realizations
利用1993年全国家庭调查数据，通过主观概率形式收集受访者对1994年春季周收入的预期，分析预期分布、预期修正及预期与实现的关系，验证了此类数据的有效性。
During the spring and the fall of 1993, respondents to a national household survey were asked to report expectations of spring 1994 weekly earnings. Elicited in the form of subjective probabilities, these data are potentially much more informative than are typical reports of economic expectations. Subjective probability distributions of future weekly earnings are estimated for each respondent, based on his or her reports of a series of subjective probabilities. This paper analyzes the cross-sectional variation in expectations, revisions of expectations between the spring and the fall of 1993, and the relationship between 1993 expectations and the distribution of spring 1994 earnings realizations. Generally positive findings on the validity of the data bode well for the prospects of eliciting expectations in future surveys. © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology