International Influences on the U.S. Economy: Summary of an Exchange
总结了关于麦金农货币替代假说的学术交流，讨论国际资产偏好变化如何通过汇率影响美国通胀和收入，并检验了世界货币增长对美国价格的影响。
In Currency Substitution and Instability in the Dollar Standard (1982), Ronald McKinnon hypothesized that shifts in international portfolio preferences for dollar assets -including bonds -destabilized the effective demand for money in the United States. From the dollar depreciation of 1971-73 to the great dollar appreciation of 1981-83, these demand shifts were telegraphed by large changes in the dollar exchange rate against other hard currencies. They signaled sudden inflation in the United States when the dollar was unexpectedly weak, and deflation when the dollar became strong. In addition, McKinnon argued this ebb and flow in the demand for dollar assets provoked foreign central banks, but not the U.S. Federal Reserve System, to adjust their money growth rates to mitigate these exchange fluctuations. Consequently, since 1970, annual percentage growth in World MI-the sum of percentage growths in dollars, marks, yen, sterling and so on fluctuated more than annual money growth in the United States. The resulting international business cycle had a first-order impact on American income and prices. Other than discussing some suggestive money and price data for ten industrial countries, McKinnon provided no formal econometric testing of his theory. This note summarizes an exchange between McKinnon and Tan (M-T) and Radcliffe, Warga, and Willett (R-W-W) prompted by the latter's 1984 econometric test of McKinnon's hypothesis. Copies of the full exchange, including new econometric work, are available from the authors.' Consider the single-equation econometric technique of explaining U.S. prices or incomes by current or lagged changes in U.S. Ml. All authors agree that there was a significant deterioration in the fit of this basic monetary equation from the fixed exchange rate period of 1958-69 to the era of floating rates from 1972 to 1982. By itself, American money growth now gives a less satisfactory explanation of cyclical fluctuations in nominal income or prices. But how can changing international asset preferences be represented statistically in a mixed exchange rate regime of dirty floating? One proxy variable is money growth in the rest of the industrial world: MlROw. McKinnon (1982) originally hypothesized that world money inclusive of MlROW has a stronger impact on American prices than U.S. money by itself. But this conjecture turns out to be true only for American (and world) tradable goods prices-as approximated by the wholesale price index (WPI). (See McKinnon-Tan, 1983). Radcliffe, Warga, and Willett correctly pointed out that the influence of MlROw is not helpful in predicting changes in U.S. nominal GNP. Myles Wallace (1983) showed that domestic price indices, such as the American CPI or GNP deflator, which have large nontradable components are not well explained by world money. R-W-W's objection is important because monetary variables