Aid, Nontraded Goods, and the Transfer Paradox in Small Countries
构建了一个包含非贸易品的小型开放经济模型，证明非贸易品产量增加可能抵消援助的正面效应，甚至导致转移悖论。基于44个受援国1970-1990年数据，发现非贸易品扩张效应比约翰逊的关税扭曲出口替代效应更易导致贫困化。
This paper constructs a model of the transfer paradox for a small open economy with nontraded goods. It demonstrates that increased production of nontraded goods can change their domestic price so as to offset the otherwise beneficial effect of aid and, under certain conditions, to create a transfer paradox even in a small country. The model is estimated with time-series data for 44 aid-dependent countries for the period 1970–1990. The results support the model and show that the nontraded goods expansion effect is more likely to cause immiserization than Johnson's tariff-distorting export-displacement effect.