INPUT‐OUTPUT FORECASTING OF REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL POLICY IMPACTS
检验了投入产出系数和乘数在预测农业政策影响时的准确性，基于威尔士农业的八张投入产出表发现，预测误差随基期与预测年间隔增大而快速上升，需改进最终需求预测、跨部门溢出效应及劳动投入与总产出关系的建模。
Input‐output coefficients and multipliers based upon them are increasingly being used to evaluate the impact of changes in agricultural policies, yet there are a number of specific difficulties with regard to their use in this context. This paper articulates various criticisms which can be made, and tests their validity by comparing multiplier forecasts with out‐turns from a series of eight input‐output tables describing the Welsh agricultural sector. The predictive performance deteriorates rapidly as the time between base matrix and forecast year increases; more attention needs to be paid to the forecasting of final demand, spill‐over effects into other sectors, and the functional relationship between labour input and gross output.