The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets
构建了一个战略期权行使博弈的均衡框架，以房地产开发时机为例，分析开发商均衡行使策略如何塑造市场行为，解释为何某些市场会出现集中开发潮，甚至在需求下降时仍出现建设热潮，为看似非理性的过度建设提供理性基础。
ABSTRACT This article develops an equilibrium framework for strategic option exercise games. I focus on a particular example: the timing of real estate development. An analysis of the equilibrium exercise policies of developers provides insights into the forces that shape market behavior. The model isolates the factors that make some markets prone to bursts of concentrated development. The model also provides an explanation for why some markets may experience building booms in the face of declining demand and property values. While such behavior is often regarded as irrational overbuilding, the model provides a rational foundation for such exercise patterns.