An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes
提出一种在缺乏直接预期数据时检验不同预期机制设定的实证方法，通过嵌套模型检验哪种预期假设更优，并以县级农场面积分配对预期商品价格的响应为例说明。
This paper develops an empirical strategy for testi ng competing hypotheses of expectation regimes when direct measures of expectati ons are unavailable. The procedure takes as given an assumed structural relation ship between expected values of exogeneous variables and a given decision variab le. By imposing different expectation regimes on this model, the authors obtain an artificial nesting of the hypothesized regimes which allows us to test whethe r any specification dominates. This methodology is extended to multipleequation applications with any number of hypothesized expectation regimes. The tests are illustrated using a model of the response of county-level farm acreage allocati on to expected commodity prices. Copyright 1986 by MIT Press.