THE EFFECTS OF BORROWING ON THE RATE OF GROWTH OF CAPITAL AND THE RISK OF RUIN OF A FIRM
通过蒙特卡洛模拟研究借贷政策对假想企业资本增长率与破产风险的影响，发现激进借贷提高增长率但增加破产风险，保守借贷则相反。
The research reported in this paper used Monte Carlo simulation to study the long term effects of borrowing policy on the rate of growth of capital and the risk (probability) of ruin of hypothetical firms, operating in explicitly described, realistic capital budgeting environments. The capital rationing environment is described explicitly. The debt policies modeled were based on the results of interviews with senior financial executives in eight major firms. The results indicate that three intuitively appealing ranking procedures performed equally well and all out‐performed a random selection decision procedure: yielding higher rates of capital growth with lower risks of ruin. In general, an aggressive borrowing policy resulted in a higher average capital growth rate for a firm but a conservative borrowing policy resulted in a lower risk of ruin. It is believed that the results provide some interesting insights which indicate that a computer simulation model could be used to aid management in the evaluation of their capital budgeting procedures and borrowing policies.