Business Cycle Duration Dependence: A Parametric Approach
用参数化风险模型重新检验美国商业周期的持续时间依赖性，发现二战前扩张期和二战后收缩期存在显著的正向持续时间依赖性，且证据强于非参数方法。
This paper reexamines duration dependence in U.S. business cycles using parametric hazard models. Positive duration dependence would indicate that expansions or contractions are more likely to end as they become older. This paper provides statistically significant evidence of positive duration dependence for expansions before World War II and contractions after World War II. The evidence is stronger than in earlier research utilizing nonparametric techniques, because certain nonparametric techniques have low statistical power against the type of duration dependence found in this paper. Evidence is also presented suggesting that expansions became longer, on average, after World War II, while contractions became shorter. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.