Are piglet prices rational hog price forecasts?
研究了仔猪价格能否作为三个月后生猪价格的预测指标，基于北欧四国1982-1992年数据验证了生猪生产者定价时持有理性预期的假设。
In this paper a simple model is developed in which the piglet price serves as a forecast for the hog price 3 months ahead. The model is tested on data from Northern Europe, viz. Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland during the period 1982-1992. The empirical results lend strong support to the hypothesis that hog producers hold rational expectations when pricing the piglets. Thus, the weight adjusted piglet price typically represents an unbiased (conditional) forecast with unsystematic errors for the hog price one quarter later.