Optimal technology choice in a dynamic‐stochastic environment
构建了一个动态随机模型，将生产计划与技术选择直接关联，在不确定需求下计算最优生产计划，并评估不同技术的成本效益，关键结论涉及转向低可变成本技术的条件。
Abstract The issue of technology management has become particularly relevant to operations planners as a result of the introduction of new, computer‐aided process technologies in recent years. At the same time, the fields of economics and management science have developed a number of models and paradigms for technology management and equipment replacement. In this article we present a model structure that builds on this theory and that is directed toward providing insights into the particular issues associated with fixed versus variable cost trade‐offs. A fairly general, dynamic, stochastic model is presented. This model links production planning with technology selection in a direct manner. The model computes optimal production plans in the face of uncertain demand in the course of evaluating the costs and benefits of each technology alternative. The key result of the article concerns conditions for the optimality of moves to lower variable cost technologies.