Interpreting the Tariff–Growth Correlation of the Late 19th Century
质疑19世纪末关税与经济增长正相关即证明保护主义成功的观点，指出高关税国家如阿根廷和加拿大的增长源于资本流入和出口拉动，而非保护政策，且高关税多为财政收入性质。
Immediately following World War II, many economists believed that a trade policy based on import substitution would best promote economic development. Subsequent experience instead revealed the costs of protectionism (Anne 0. Krueger, 1997). In the late 19th century as well, many political economists (such as Friedrich List) advocated import tariffs to promote the growth of domestic manufacturing in countries that were behind the industrial leader, then the United Kingdom. Unlike the recent period, however, the late 19th-century experience is often interpreted as confirming the wisdom of import substitution.' Recent work by Kevin H. O'Rourke (2000) and Michael A. Clemens and Jeffrey G. Williamson (2001) has strengthened this impression by finding a positive correlation between import tariffs and economic growth across countries from 1875 to 1914. Such a correlation does not establish a causal relationship between tariffs and growth, but it is tempting to view the correlation as constituting evidence that protectionist or inward-oriented trade strategies were successful during this period. This paper argues that such a conclusion is unwarranted and that the tariff-growth correlation should be interpreted with great care. First, several individual country experiences in the late 19th century are not consistent with the view that import substitution promoted growth. For example, the two most rapidly expanding, high-tariff countries of the period (Argentina and Canada) grew because capital imports helped stimulate export-led growth in agriculturalstaples products, not because of protectionist trade policies. Second, most land-abundant countries (such as Argentina and Canada) imposed high tariffs to raise government revenue, and revenue tariffs have a different structure than protective tariffs. The fact that labor-scarce, land-abundant countries had a high potential for growth and also tended to impose high revenue-generating tariffs confounds the inference that high tariffs were responsible for their strong economic performance during this period.