Inter–and intra–sectoral effects of milk quotas in the U.K. milk industry
利用小型计量经济模型，模拟英国牛奶配额对农民、供应商及加工行业的影响，发现农民调整方式（如减少牛群或降低单产）对结果至关重要。
<sec> The effects of milk quotas in the U.K. on farmers, their suppliers, and on thepro-cessing industries are investigated using a small econometric model The model equations are derived from estimates of technical and economic relationships in the U.K. milk industry without an undue emphasis on an all-embracing theoretical optimization process. The model is built up from a series of individually plausible equations which, when linked together, produce simulated results for alternative farmer reactions to the imposition of quotas. Thus, reductions in herd size, reductions in cow yield, and a combination of herd and yield reductions are examined The resulting simulations over a five year period from 1984 to 1988 illustrate changes in livestock numbers, feed demand, and income and employment in various input supply and output processing industries. These changes are of varying size and direction for different inputs and production alternatives to dairying. These results imply that it is not fust the overall level of quota production that is important The methods by which farmers adjust to the new limits are also very significant. </sec>