The Road Less Travelled: Institutional Aspects of Data and their Influence on Empirical Estimates with an Application to Tests of Forward Rate Unbiasedness
指出实证研究使用的数据与理论设想的数据存在差异，这种差异会影响估计结果。以远期汇率无偏性检验为例，发现外汇市场投机机制和合约制度方面的不明确导致数据采样与理论不一致，采样问题部分解释了远期溢价系数的偏误。
The difference between data used in empirical studies and that envisioned in the theory can influence empirical estimates, sometimes by enough that the direction of future research is altered. This paper illustrates how, in the context of tests of forward rate unbiasedness, a lack of articulation about the mechanics underlying foreign exchange market speculation and about the institutional aspects governing spot and forward rate contracts leads to sampling of the data in a way that is not consistent with the theory. We find that the sampling problems account for some, but not all of the bias in the coefficient on the forward premium.