HERD INVENTORY AND SLAUGHTER SUPPLY RESPONSE OF BOTSWANA BEEF CATTLE PRODUCERS
使用理性分布滞后模型估计博茨瓦纳肉牛存栏量和屠宰量，发现存栏行为受价格影响的周期性特征，而屠宰决策受长期周期及短期价格和牧场条件影响，价格弹性显著不同于其他研究。
A statistical model composed of rational distributed lags was used to estimate cattle inventory and cattle slaughter in the livestock sector of the Republic of Botswana. The impact of range and biological conditions, government infrastructure, technology, and cattle prices were tested in the initial maintained hypotheses. Results revealed that a polynomial rational lag structure, or cyclical effect, characterised the behaviour of herd inventories specific to changes in cattle prices. Contemporaneous decisions to market slaughter cattle were affected by the long‐term cycle as well as the more direct influence of slaughter prices and range conditions within a one to two year period. The responsiveness of these sectors to changes in cattle prices is qualified within the biological and climatic constraints, and customs of the tribal and commercial cattle producing economies. It appears that the significance of the price‐elasticities stands in contrast to the findings of other studies.