A State‐Space Approach to Perennial Crop Supply Analysis
提出一种动态不可观测成分方法，能在缺乏新种植和补种详细数据时分别估计多年生作物供给的结构方程，并以佛罗里达葡萄柚产业为例验证其统计和预测表现优于单一简化式方程。
Abstract In perennial crop supply analysis, separate estimation of the qualitatively different new planting and replanting decisions is desirable. Commonly, data paucity restricts estimation to a single reduced form equation. This study develops a dynamic unobserved components method where separate estimation of the structural equations is possible in the absence of detailed data on new plantings and replantings. The proposed method is empirically implemented in a case study of the Florida grapefruit industry. In terms of both statistical and forecasting performance, the proposed structural approach is found superior to a single equation reduced form specification.