Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Macroeconomic Shocks, and Development Aid
利用1970-2005年22个捐助国和113个受援国的双边数据，研究发现发展援助在捐助国和受援国经济周期中均呈顺周期性，但在受援国遭遇严重冲击时援助增加，可能起到缓冲作用。
We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and 113 recipients during 1970–2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to the business cycle in both donor and recipient countries. While aid outlays contract sharply during severe downturns in donor countries, they rise steeply when aid-receiving countries experience large adverse shocks. Our findings suggest that development aid may play an important cushioning role in developing countries, but only during times of severe macroeconomic stress. Our results are robust to alternate definitions of aid flows, specifications, and estimation techniques.