The Effects of Alternative Monetary Control Procedures on Exchange Rates and Output
分析美联储1979年储备目标程序和1981年财政部不干预汇率政策对利率、汇率、产出和货币供应波动的影响，指出紧缩货币导致汇率升值和净出口下降。
WE HAVE NOW HAD over two years' experience with the new reserve targeting procedure introduced by the Federal Reserve System in October 1979 and almost one year's experience with the policy of nonintervention in the exchange market introduced by the Treasury in April 1981. During this period, dollar interest rates and exchange rates have fluctuated more widely than previously, as might have been expected. Rather surprisingly, real output and the money supply have also fluctuated more widely than in recent years. Both the recessions of 1980 and 1981 were brought on by tight monetary policies aimed at reducing inflation, although the abortive credit control program of 1980 and the oil price increase of 1979-80 also were important factors. It is well known that appreciation of the exchange rate is a major aspect of the effects of tight money in an open economy with a floating exchange rate. Indeed, the real effective exchange rate of the U.S. dollar appreciated 17 percent from 1979 to 1981. And over the period 1980.I to 1981.III, real net exports have declined $7 billion. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that loss of competitiveness will reduce U.S. net trade volumes $43 billion over the period 1980-82 [9] . If tight money in general has such powerful effects on the exchange rate and balance of payments, the question must be raised whether greater volatility in