TV Weather Forecast or Look through the Window? Expert and Consumer Expectations about Macroeconomic Conditions
研究德国消费者与专家对宏观经济预期的关系，发现消费者预期主要受自身回顾影响，与专家预期关联弱，但选举期间关联增强。
Summary This paper investigates the empirical relation between consumer and expert expectations about macroeconomic conditions in Germany. Using data from the EU Consumer Confidence Survey and the ZEW business expectations, static models and error‐correction models are estimated explaining consumer expectations as functions of expert expectations, consumer retrospections, and lagged consumer expectations. It's found that consumer expectations are only weakly related to expert expectations, but strongly influenced by consumers' retrospections. Consumers primarily extrapolate perceptions about current economic conditions in the future. However, during national election campaigns, the relation between consumer and expert expectations is stronger.