Beyond Rational Expectations: A Constructive Interpretation of Keynes's Analysis of Behaviour Under Uncertainty
提出，不确定性下的行为不仅取决于理性预期，还取决于主体对预期所依据证据充分性的评估，并引入“可信度”变量来扩展行为函数，基于凯恩斯《通论》和《概率论》中的思想。
This paper suggests that behaviour under uncertainty depends not only on rational expectations but also the agent's evaluation of the adequacy of the available evidence on which the expectations are based. It is argued that behavioural functions need to be augmented by a credence variable. This proposition is derived from Keynes's argument in the General Theory that investment depends on both the most probable forecast and the state of confidence, reflecting the distinction between probability and weight in his A Treatise on Probability. The research implications of the proposed model are indicated.