Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, and Sales
提出一个分析新车总销售的新框架，分别建模车辆存量的变化和报废率，仅需少量假设即可用于宏观经济预测，并提供了美国机动车存量的新历史年度时间序列估计。
This paper offers a new framework for analyzing aggregate sales of new motor vehicles that incorporates separate models for the change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage. Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, the state of the economy, consumer "preferences, " new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is shown to be especially useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool. In addition, a new historical annual time series estimate of motor vehicle stocks in the United States is presented.