Forward-Looking Behavior and the Stability of a Conventional Monetary Policy Rule
发现，当传统货币政策规则（如泰勒规则）与短期实际利率驱动的通胀模型结合时，模型不稳定；但加入前瞻性成分后，政策能稳定通胀。对研究货币政策设计的经济学者有参考价值。
At the turn of the century, Knut Wicksell proposed a monetary policy rule that has become conventional wisdom: raise interest rates when inflation is above target and vice versa. The authors discover some surprising properties of this rule. When the rule is included in a model in which inflation is driven by the short real rate, the model is unstable. When the rule is combined with a Phillips curve driven by a backward-looking long real rate, the model is unstable. However, when a forward-looking component is added to inflation or the long real rate, the policy stabilizes the rate of inflation. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.