A Comparison of Stock Price Predictions Using Court Accepted Formulas, Dividend Discount, and P/E Models
比较了市场可比公式和股息贴现模型在私人持股公司估值中的表现，对金融教授、投资银行家、律师等处理估值问题的人有参考价值。
m Valuation of privately held stock is one of the most important issues in corporate finance because the majority of businesses are small and privately owned. Valuation is critical in estate and divorce settlements, disputes with the IRS, acquisitions and mergers, loans, partnership buyouts, and ESOPs. It is also of major concern to the finance professor who teaches corporate finance and investments, as well as to investment bankers, lawyers, expert witnesses, judges, and juries. By perusing recent periodical indices, one can find many articles addressing the issue of valuation. The majority of articles are descriptive in nature, summarizing different approaches to valuation, giving their strengths and weaknesses, or reviewing recent court decisions (e.g., Blum [7], Longenecker [20], and Weiss [29]). Two approaches are commonly adopted as benchmarks in determining value. These techniques shall be referred to as Market Comparable Formula (MCF) and Dividend Discount (DD). The popularity of MCF may be traced to landmark legal decisions such as Central Trust [2] and Bader [1]. In both cases, a value was derived based on a weighted average of the capitalized value of dividends, earnings, and book value, and then reduced for lack of marketability. The DD value, on the other hand, depends on the forecasted future cash flows of an asset (dividends for stocks), discounted at a risk-adjusted rate.