The Flip Side of Financial Synergies: Coinsurance Versus Risk Contamination
研究了两个项目通过债务联合融资何时会增加预期违约成本,发现当风险传染损失超过共同保险收益时,单独融资更优,这对理解企业并购、分拆、项目融资和证券化有参考价值。
This paper characterizes when joint financing of two projects through debt increases expected default costs, contrary to conventional wisdom. Separate financing dominates joint financing when risk-contamination losses—that are associated with the contagious default of a well-performing project that is dragged down by the other project's poor performance—outweigh standard coinsurance gains. Separate financing becomes more attractive than joint financing when the fraction of returns lost under default increases and when projects have lower mean returns, higher variability, more positive correlation, and more negative skewness. These predictions are broadly consistent with evidence on conglomerate mergers, spinoffs, project finance, and securitization.