Predicting System Usage from Intention and Past Use: Scale Issues in the Predictors
基于386名信息系统用户的调查数据，研究了意图和过去使用的测量尺度如何影响对系统使用行为的预测能力，发现预测变量的尺度选择会显著改变解释方差（从20%到73%）。
ABSTRACT The objective of this study is to provide insights into how the predictive power for computer‐recorded system usage can be improved. Based on 386 responses from actual users of an information system, we examine the predictive power for system usage according to the scales of the predictors used, namely, intention and past use. First, we show that the predictive power of intention can be significantly improved with the choice of an appropriate measure. However, even the desirable intention measure failed to explain two‐thirds of the variance in system usage. Second, the results show that past use as measured by computer‐recorded log data can significantly enhance our ability to predict system usage. Finally, when both intention and past use are controlled for, the explained variance in system usage is shown to vary widely from 20% to 73%, depending on the predictors' scales. Overall, our findings suggest that an accurate prediction of system usage requires a more rigorous approach than that often applied in information systems research.