A DYNAMIC MODEL OF INTERREGIONAL MIGRATION FLOWS IN GREAT BRITAIN*
利用英国国家卫生服务登记中心1975-1979年男性工作年龄迁移数据，构建两阶段动态模型，分离全国迁移总量与内部流向及距离敏感性的影响因素，揭示长滞后动态响应。
"The purpose of this study is to construct a dynamic model of migration in Great Britain based on time-series data developed from the records of the National Health Service Center Register (NHSCR) on male migrants of working age between 1975 quarter 2 and 1979 quarter 2." A two-stage methodology "was developed...which differed in many important respects from the techniques adopted in previous studies of time-series migration flows. Regional push and pull factors were derived on the basis of the revealed preferences of migrants, using a two-stream gravity model, and then subsequently related to vectors of regional characteristics, within a general dynamic setting. Factors affecting the overall volume of migration nationally were separated out from those determining the internal direction of migration flows, and factors affecting distance sensitivity. Despite weaknesses in the available data set, the results achieved...suggested many interesting dynamic responses, implying lengthy and important lags in the estimated relationships."