Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge
在统一方法论下考察一系列经济模型中的预期协调，认为理性预期假说的预测若能从更基础的共同知识假说推导出来则是合理的，并回顾现有结果、提出新结论，将其转化为经济直觉表述。
The paper examines within a unified methodology expectational coordination in a series of economic models. The methodology views the predictions associated with the Rational Expectations Hypothesis as reasonable whenever they can be derived from the more basic Common Knowledge Hypothesis. The paper successively considers a simple non-noisy N-dimensional model, standard models with “intrinsic” uncertainty, and reference intertemporal models with infinite horizon. It reviews existing results and suggests new ones. It translates the formal results into looser but economically intuitive statements, whose robustness, in the present state of knowledge, is tentatively ascertained.