专家模型

A Model of Expertise

Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2001
被引 545
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究完全知情但带有偏见的专家如何向决策者提供建议,以及当决策者先后咨询两位专家时,是否比只咨询一位更能促进信息充分披露。

Abstract

We study a model in which perfectly informed experts offer advice to a decision maker whose actions affect the welfare of all. Experts are biased and thus may wish to pull the decision maker in different directions and to different degrees. When the decision maker consults only a single expert, the expert withholds substantial information from the decision maker. We ask whether this situation is improved by having the decision maker sequentially consult two experts. We first show that there is no perfect Bayesian equilibrium in which full revelation occurs. When both experts are biased in the same direction, it is never beneficial to consult both. In contrast, when experts are biased in opposite directions, it is always beneficial to consult both. Indeed, in this case full revelation may be induced in an extended debate by introducing the possibility of rebuttal.

专家建议信息揭示辩论机制专家偏差