Budgetary risks from real estate and stock markets
研究资产价格变化如何影响政府财政收支，发现这种影响可能不对称，导致赤字和债务偏差。基于20个工业化国家1982-2002年的面板数据，估计英国和瑞典1990年代初财政恶化中有30-40%源于资产价格效应，其中房地产价格变化作用尤为突出。
Fiscal revenues and government expenditures are affected by asset price changes in ways that are not accounted for by standard cyclical‐adjustment methods. Revenues are influenced by capital gains and turnover taxation, as well as by output changes determined by the effect of wealth changes on consumption and investment. And outlays may also be affected if collapsing asset prices prompt fiscal authorities to bail out private‐sector balance sheet problems. We point out that these effects can be asymmetric, resulting in deficit and debt biases, and we find support for this phenomenon in panel estimates for a sample of 20 industrialized countries over 1982–2002. The estimated coefficients indicate that 30–40% of the dramatic early 1990s fiscal balance deteriorations in the UK and Sweden was due to asset price effects, with a particularly relevant role for real estate price changes. If financial markets experience boom–bust cycles, prudent management of fiscal windfalls in boom phases is needed to ensure fiscal and financial sustainability in bust phases, and budgetary rules may need to account explicitly for a separate role of asset price‐related effects. — Felix Eschenbach and Ludger Schuknecht