Consumers' Perceptions and Misperceptions of Energy Costs
基于全美代表性调查，发现美国消费者购车时很少关注燃油成本，存在“MPG错觉”导致低估低油耗车之间的成本差异，且对未来油价预期高于当前价格和期货市场预测。
This paper presents three initial stylized facts from the Vehicle Ownership and Alternatives Survey (VOAS), a nationally representative survey that elicits consumers' beliefs about gasoline prices and the relative energy costs of autos with different fuel economy ratings. First, American consumers devote little attention to fuel costs when purchasing autos. Second, consistent with a cognitive bias called “MPG Illusion,” consumers underestimate the fuel cost differences between low-MPG vehicles and overestimate the differences between high-MPG vehicles. Third, Americans' mean and median expected future gas prices were above current prices and predictions of the futures market at the time of the survey. Although it is often argued that misperceived energy costs justify policies to encourage the sale of energy efficient durable goods, these results show that misperceptions and expectations that differ from market information could either increase or decrease energy efficiency.