Supply Shocks, Wage Stickiness, and Accommodation
分析供给冲击导致经济衰退的条件，以及货币政策能否和应否用于抵消产出下降，核心发现是纯供给冲击在货币供给不变时未必引发衰退，衰退源于总需求效应或工人实际工资抵抗。
The main issue discussed in the SUpply shock literature that followed the oil and food price shocks of the seventies was whether to accommodate. The supply shock reduces the equilibrium 1eel of output, and monetary policy cannot affect that. But in the seventies supply shocks were also followed by recessions. The question is whether monetary policy can and should be used to prevent such recessions. The paper analyzes the conditions under which a suppiy shock will result in. recession, and the potential for monetary policy to offset the fall in output. The basic result is that a pure supply 3hock need not result in a recession if the money stock is held constant. Aggregate demand effects associated with the supply shock-—including the effects of monetary policy attempts to fight the inflation caused by the supply shock--may cause a recession, as also may real wage resistance by workers. The choice of polloy response to the supply shock then turns on the same basic issues as counter— cyclical policy in general, particularly the relative costs of inflation and unemployment.